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Fundamental Analysis 20.02.2018 - Market Outlook

Market Recap

A relatively quiet day yesterday, as expected, with much of Asia and the US out on holiday. USD finally seems to be getting some support from higher US bond yields. Although the US market was closed yesterday, yields rose across the curve as investors lighten up their positions in preperation for a record-large series of Treasury auctions this week, including $151bn in short-term bills today. All told the Treasury will sell a record $230bn in this holiday-shortened week.

USD/JPY was particularly affected by the higher Treasury yields, as the Bank of Japan pegs Japanese government bond yields and therefore when US yields rise, the yield spread usually widens out most vs Japan (as other bond markets sometimes tend to follow the Treasury market).  I think we could see a further rise in USD/JPY. ¥107.54 would be approximately the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move.

AUD/NZD was the big mover, but there doesn’t seem to be any specific news that triggered the action. Both currencies were falling together vs USD until late in the Asian day, when AUD suddenly when shooting up as exporters began covering their short positions. Certainly the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s latest meeting didn’t do much to boost the currency; they reiterated that they expect inflation to accelerate “only gradually” as the economy improves.

Today’s market

The week’s indicators start today with Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) survey. 

Both the current conditions and expectations indices are expected to fall slightly. The current conditions index hit a record high last month (the series goes back to 1991). The decline in the expectations index may suggest that analysts don’t expect things can get much better than they are now – with the European Central Bank (ECB) starting to consider the timing for reducing its monetary stimulus, it’s likely that growth won’t be able to accelerate that much faster. This could be EUR-neutral. 


The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial trends survey is a second-tier indicator. It is often followed by a significant movement in EUR/GBP, although not so much in GBP/USD.

What’s noticeable here is that prices are going up while sales are starting to go down. Of course the survey is quite variable – it went from -2 in October to +17 in November – so this isn’t yet a trend. But it reminds me of what happened last week in the US with the Fed surveys showing higher selling prices while industrial production fell month-on-month.

In any case, a fall in output could be GBP-negative, but a rise in the prices paid index – which economists don’t forecast – could be GBP-positive.


Overnight, Westpac releases its Australian leading index. This is another index that economists don’t forecast but which has some notable impact on the currency. In recent months the index has been rising steadily, suggesting solid growth ahead. Another good month-on-month rise could be positive for AUD.



The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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